🏹 August 24th - The Chief Brief 🏹

Stock Rising or Falling? FSU’s 2025 Outlook Revealed

Forwarded this email from a friend? Subscribe at the button below

Yesterday’s Poll Results

Today’s Poll

In 2027, will Mike Norvell still be FSU’s head coach?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

🏹 Welcome to The Chief Brief! 🏹

Happy Sunday, Seminole!

The countdown is over — it’s officially game week in Tallahassee. As the Noles prepare for Alabama, this edition dives into the energy, expectations, and even a few laughs shaping the start of 2025.

  • 🔨 Castellanos Breaks the Rock
    Transfer QB Tommy Castellanos hasn’t taken a snap yet, but he’s already earned the team’s trust as the preseason’s leadership honoree.

  • 📊 Seven-Win Forecast?
    Noles247 projects FSU’s 2025 win shares at just over seven, with rivalry showdowns and Clemson looming as season-definers.

  • 📈 Stock Report
    Running backs, tight ends, and the O-line are trending up, but questions linger on the defensive front.

  • 🏆 Claim Six More Titles?
    Corey Clark makes the tongue-in-cheek case that if Auburn can retroactively tack on banners, FSU should too — bringing the total to nine.

  • 🔮 Norvell in 2027
    Noles247 takes a creative look ahead, imagining how Mike Norvell survives to Year 8 with QB stability, recruiting hits, and coordinator success.

FSU football has seen better days, but with new leaders, fresh talent, and a chance to reset the program’s course, hope is back on the table.

🎫 Win FSU tickets all season 🎫 

Past winners have said:

You’re already entered for the next drawing for being a subscriber of The Chief Brief.

🔨 Tommy Castellanos “Breaks the Rock” 🔨 

Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos has already earned a major honor before ever taking a snap in Garnet and Gold: he was chosen to “break the rock” following preseason camp, a tradition recognizing the player who best embodies daily leadership and effort.

🔥 Why Castellanos

  • Strength coach Josh Storms said Castellanos was picked for uplifting teammates, bringing energy, and modeling consistency every single day.

  • The moment was captured in an FSU Football video, showing him smashing the rock with teammates celebrating.

💨 Transfer Spotlight

  • Castellanos arrived from Boston College in January after starting at QB for most of the past two seasons.

  • He’s expected to be one of up to 10 first-year transfers in the starting lineup when the Seminoles face Alabama on Aug. 30.

📌 Why It Matters
Castellanos isn’t just battling for snaps — he’s already established himself as a cultural tone-setter inside the locker room, exactly the kind of presence FSU needs heading into its biggest opener in years.

📊 Projecting FSU’s 2025 Win Shares 📊

It’s been a long nine months since the Garnet & Gold took the field — and last season’s 2–10 campaign is one many fans are ready to forget. The Noles247 staff has turned the page, releasing their collective win share projections for 2025. The result? A cautiously optimistic seven wins.

🔮 Aggregate Predictions

  • Total Wins: 7.21 projected by the group

  • Most Confident Picks: East Texas A&M (.99), Kent State (.97), and Stanford (.69)

  • Lowest Confidence: Clemson (.20), Florida (.40), Miami (.42)

  • Toss-Up Range: Pittsburgh (.58), NC State (.54), Virginia Tech (.66)

🧾 Staff Notes

  • Clemson: No staffer gave FSU more than a .33 chance in Death Valley.

  • Rivalries: Both Miami (.42) and Florida (.40) are seen as competitive, but tilting against the ‘Noles.

  • Upside Games: Alabama sits at just .31, but as the opener in Doak, some see potential for an upset swing.

🎯 What’s at Stake
The math says FSU is in line for a winning record, but not a return to national relevance — unless they flip a couple of those “swing games.” Rivalries and marquee matchups (Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Miami) aren’t just about bragging rights this year; they’ll likely define whether 2025 is remembered as a true bounce-back or just incremental progress.

📈 FSU Position Group Stock Report 📉

With fall camp in the books and Alabama on deck, Noles247 took inventory of every position group heading into the 2025 season. Here’s where the stock is rising, holding, or falling.

🔥 Trending Up

  • RB: Ousmane Kromah has been the breakout story of camp, with Oklahoma transfer Gavin Sawchuk providing a steady veteran presence. Stock up after spring doubts.

  • TE: Landen Thomas looks ready for Year 2, while Amaree Williams returns to offense. UCF transfer Randy Pittman Jr. adds reliability, and freshman Chase Loftin could contribute early.

  • OL: A settled unit with six proven starters (Petitbon, Hansen, Pettus, Leonard, Medley, Rizy). Depth from Otto and Simmons adds confidence.

  • Special Teams: Freshman Jake Weinberg nailed kicks from 63 and 58 yards in scrimmage, Mac Chiumento looks solid punting, and Jaylin Lucas + Micahi Danzy headline a dangerous return group.

⚖️ Holding Steady

  • QB: Tommy Castellanos brings leadership and athleticism, but accuracy concerns remain. Kevin Sperry is promising, Brock Glenn recovering.

  • WR: Duce Robinson and Squirrel White headline, but injuries cast doubt. Jayvan Boggs in the slot and young depth (Elijah Moore, BJ Gibson, Micahi Danzy) keep the group intriguing.

  • LB: Experienced and high-IQ room with Graham, Cryer, Thompson, Herring, and Nichelson. Missing a true game-changer but steady overall.

  • DB: Jeremiah Wilson has impressed since arriving, with Ja’Bril Rawls and versatile safeties (Kirkland, Joseph, Little Jr., Barker) rounding out the group. Shyheim Brown’s role slipping is notable.

📉 Stock Down

  • DL: Starters are solid (Jackson, Williams, Jenkins, Lyons), but depth is thin and reliant on freshmen like Kevin Wynn and the Desir twins. Pass rush concerns loom, with James Williams the only proven threat.

🔎 The Bottom Line
Florida State enters 2025 with an offense on the rise — strong at RB, TE, OL, and special teams — but serious questions remain about defensive line depth and whether QB Castellanos can consistently deliver through the air. How those issues resolve could be the difference between a solid season and another disappointing stumble.

Apple Is Coming for the Smart Home — And Fast

Apple’s rumored Face-ID door lock and smart display hub are more than just new products. It’s a clear signal: they’re going all-in on smart home automation.

The tech giant is doubling down on the smart home, the $158B industry that’s growing 23% annually.

And with Apple’s entry, investors are looking for the next breakout company - and potential acquisition target.

They’re chasing Google (acquired Nest, $3.2B) and Amazon (acquired Ring, $1.2B).

History shows: when Apple plays catch-up, they go big.

And there’s one startup perfectly positioned to benefit.

With 10+ patents, distribution in over 100 Best Buy stores, and revenue growth that doubled year-over-year, they’re built for a huge breakout.

Early investors in Ring and Nest saw life-changing returns.

🏆 Should FSU Claim 6 More National Titles? 🏆

Corey Clark of Warchant poked fun at Auburn’s decision to retroactively “award” itself seven additional football national championships — and made the case that Florida State could do the same.

🔥 Auburn’s Move

  • Auburn recently announced it would recognize seven extra titles based on old polls/computer rankings (1910, 1913, 1914, 1958, 1983, 1993, 2004).

  • That includes 1993 — a year FSU actually won the AP and Coaches’ poll behind Charlie Ward.

💨 FSU’s Case for 6 More

  • 1980: Rothman FACT poll crowned FSU champs.

  • 1987: Berryman QRPS Massey said ‘Noles were #1.

  • 1989: Billingsley Report picked FSU (even over Miami).

  • 1992: Sagarin Ratings gave it to the ‘Noles.

  • 1994: Dunkel System favored FSU.

  • 1996: Alderson System named them champs.

👀 Perspective

  • Clark argues that if Auburn can hang banners for obscure polls, FSU should too — bringing the total to nine claimed national titles.

  • He also notes that in the playoff era, many of Bobby Bowden’s best teams would’ve likely had more than the official three championships.

🔑 Key Takeaway

If “revisionist history” is fair game, Florida State has just as much claim as Auburn (if not more) to extra hardware. Whether tongue-in-cheek or serious, the idea underlines both the absurdity — and the pride — of college football’s championship past.

🔮 Mike Norvell: How He Made It to 2027 🔮

Noles247 took a creative leap into the future, imagining a September 2027 press conference where Mike Norvell is still Florida State’s head coach. The scenario paints a picture of how Norvell weathered the turbulence of 2024 and steadied the program through a mix of portal wins, homegrown development, and staff stability.

🔥 Five Keys to Survival

  1. QB Stability

    • Betting on Tommy Castellanos provided two years of solid quarterback play, giving Norvell breathing room after previous portal misses.

  2. Kevin Sperry’s Emergence

    • The freshman QB gave fans a glimpse of long-term stability, avoiding another cycle of transfer dependency.

  3. Dalvin Cook 2.0?

    • Ousmane Kromah’s early breakout impact mirrored Dalvin’s spark, elevating both the offense and recruiting buzz.

  4. Prep Recruiting Payoff

    • Players like Jayvan Boggs, Chase Loftin, Kevin Wynn, and Shamar Arnoux delivered real production, finally showing FSU could develop its own talent again.

  5. Coordinator Hits

    • Gus Malzahn and Tony White were envisioned as successful hires, providing balance and continuity during critical years.

📈 Looking Ahead
This future-cast isn’t a prediction, but it shows the roadmap: quarterback stability, prep recruiting wins, and strong coordinators are the pillars of Norvell’s survival story. If that path holds, FSU’s optimism in 2027 won’t be a stretch — it’ll be the product of lessons learned from the collapse of 2024.

And that’s a wrap!

Thanks for riding along with us as we count down to kickoff. From Tommy smashing the rock to a seven-win forecast, one thing’s clear: 2025 is going to test the Seminoles on every front — culture, consistency, and credibility. The questions are big, but so are the opportunities.

See you back here tomorrow as we close in on Alabama week and all the fireworks that come with it.

Until then — stay sharp, stay loud, and stay Garnet & Gold.

How'd we do?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.