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Yesterday’s Poll Results
Today’s Poll
What's your realistic win total for FSU this season?
🏹 Welcome to The Chief Brief! 🏹
Good morning, Seminole! Camp is finally here, but the headline today isn't on the practice field, it's the ACC's preseason poll, where FSU landed lower than it ever has as a league member. We've also got a massive roundtable preview, the latest on Ashton Daniels' leadership (and the skeptics), a running back competition taking shape, and a lot more.
📋 In Today's Chief Brief:
📉 FSU Picked 11th in ACC Preseason Poll 📉 - The lowest projection in program history.
🗣️ Roundtable: Seven Big Questions for 2026 🗣️ - Predictions, win totals, and a lot of disagreement.
🧠 Daniels' Leadership vs. the Skeptics 🧠 - Coaches praise him, rankings don't.
🏃 FSU's Running Back Picture Comes Into Focus 🏃 - Three names, one crowded room.
❓ Three Questions for FSU's Receiving Room ❓ - The camp preview series continues.
⚡ Trading Size for Speed on the D-Line ⚡ - FSU's bet on a lighter, faster front.
🏈 A First-Round Talent on Defense? 🏈 - A former NFL scout makes his case.
💪 TE Landen Thomas Primed for a Breakout 💪 - His first fully healthy camp.
📝 Notebook 📝 - Hoops, golf, and the Marching Chiefs hit the road.
Let's dive in. 🍢
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The ACC released its preseason predicted order of finish Tuesday, and Florida State landed at 11th, the lowest projection in the program's 34 years as a league member.
📊 Where FSU Landed
Miami was picked as the preseason favorite with 3,159 points, followed by SMU, Louisville, and Clemson. FSU received 1,439 points and, despite the low ranking, still picked up three first-place votes from the 188 media members who voted.
📜 Historical Context
FSU has been picked to win the ACC in 19 of the previous 35 preseason polls, including 13 straight before the conference introduced divisions. The program's only other rock-bottom projection came last year, when FSU was picked seventh, which had been the previous low mark until today.
Why It Matters: An 11th-place preseason ranking is as clear a signal as any of how far outside expectations have fallen in Tallahassee. It also sets an extremely low bar, meaning any real improvement this fall will look like a significant step in the eyes of the media that voted. 🍢
A panel of Tomahawk Nation writers tackled the biggest questions facing FSU ahead of the season, from which side of the ball is stronger to predicted final records.
📈 The Numbers
FanDuel's win total for FSU sits at 5.5, down from 6.5 in the spring and 7.5 entering last season. ESPN's FPI ranks the Seminoles 28th nationally, projecting a 6.7-5.4 record with just a 3.2% chance to win the ACC.
🔮 Predictions Across the Board
Panelists were split on the team's strongest unit, with several landing on the defense for a second-year jump under Tony White, while others pointed to the skill positions on offense. Predicted final records ranged from as strong as 7-6 to as bleak as 4-8, with most landing around 5-7 or 6-6.
On whether Ashton Daniels starts all 12 games, the panel was almost unanimously skeptical, with several writers flagging Kevin Sperry or Malachi Marshall as midseason options if the offense stalls.
Why It Matters: When a group of writers who cover the program daily can't agree on anything beyond "this team is hard to project," it tells you just how unsettled the outlook is heading into fall camp. 🍢
🧠 FSU's Coaches Praise Ashton Daniels' Leadership, But Outside Rankings Aren't Buying It 🧠
Florida State's coaches have consistently pointed to Ashton Daniels' leadership and experience as much as his physical tools ahead of fall camp, even as one national outlet ranked him among the worst starting quarterbacks in the Power Four.
Quarterbacks coach Austin Tucker said he and Daniels have gone back through his Auburn film together as part of building their relationship, calling it part of a maturing "quarterback journey." Norvell said Daniels has "the right edge" and believes he'll take a big step if he continues to grow.
Behind Daniels, Tucker praised redshirt freshman Kevin Sperry's response to losing the starting job, while JUCO National Player of the Year Malachi Marshall has impressed in the weight room and film room since arriving this summer. Lafayette transfer Dean DeNobile adds a veteran voice after throwing for nearly 7,000 career yards.
Sports Illustrated's Power 4 quarterback rankings slotted Daniels at No. 60 out of 68, citing his 5-18 career record as a starter and a career mark of 18 interceptions against 18 touchdowns in Power Conference starts. Nine quarterbacks on FSU's own 2026 schedule ranked ahead of him.
Why It Matters: FSU's staff is betting heavily on leadership and fit translating to results, but the numbers-based view of Daniels from outside the building remains skeptical. Fall camp is where that gap between belief and evidence starts to close, or widen. 🍢
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With fall camp arriving, running backs coach Kam Martin has three names he keeps circling back to when discussing the backfield: Samuel Singleton Jr., Ousmane Kromah, and Texas transfer Quintrevion Wisner.
📊 Where They Stand
Wisner led all backs in the room in track record, rushing for 1,734 career yards and leading Texas in rushing each of the past two seasons. Kromah flashed as a true freshman with 149 snaps, while Singleton has quietly built trust in the room over four seasons in the program.
🗣️ Martin's Read on Each Back
Martin called Singleton "a guy that people need to know about," pointing to his work ethic and consistency. He said Kromah "is whatever you make him to be" and has the tools to be special if he buys into a bigger role in Year 2.
On Wisner, Martin pointed to his experience breaking out of a similarly crowded Texas backfield that included Jonathan Brooks and CJ Baxter as proof he can handle the same situation at FSU.
Why It Matters: Martin wants a bell-cow back to emerge from fall camp rather than the shuffle that defined FSU's run game a year ago. Whoever wins that job could be the biggest swing factor for an offense that needs stability up front and at quarterback. 🍢
The fall camp question series continues with a talented but largely unproven receiving room behind Duce Robinson, a group defensive coordinator Tony White says is already sharpening his own unit in practice.
🎯 Getting Robinson the Ball
Robinson commanded nearly 30% of the target share last season while lining up outside over 80% of the time. He's said he wants to move around the formation more this year, and Norvell and OC Tim Harris Jr. plan to use more slot reps and motion to create leverage for their top target.
🚀 Micahi Danzy's Next Step
Danzy led the ACC with over 21 yards per reception last season. Tony White said this week that Danzy "is looking to be an All-American" this fall, praising his combination of speed and size heading into a bigger role in Norvell's offense.
🌟 Does a Freshman Win WR3?
True freshmen Jasen Lopez and Devin Carter both drew rave reviews this spring, and White singled out Carter by name as one of several young players making life difficult on FSU's defense in camp. Jayvan Boggs currently holds the WR3 job, but his lingering injury has kept the door open.
Why It Matters: With Robinson locked in as WR1, how the staff builds the rest of the room around him, particularly whether a true freshman forces his way onto the field, will shape how explosive this offense can be. 🍢
FSU got smaller up front on the defensive line this offseason, a deliberate shift after last year's group ranked a middling 27th nationally in yards allowed per carry.
📉 Trading Size for Speed
Gone is 330-pound run-plugger Darrell Jackson, who graded as a top-five run stopper in the country last season. In his place, defensive coordinator Tony White is leaning into the 3-3-5 scheme's roots, using lighter, faster linemen to attack gaps rather than hold ground.
FSU's projected rotation now averages under 265 pounds outside of returners Daniel Lyons and Deante McCray plus newcomers Jordan Sanders and Kevin Wynn.
🗣️ The Staff's Confidence
Defensive line coach Terrance Knighton acknowledged nobody replaces a player like Jackson, but said the group's mix of skill sets is the point. EDGE coach Nick Williams added that weight matters less than technique and effort: "I'm not worried at all about any of that."
Why It Matters: It's a philosophical bet that speed and unpredictability can replace brute force up front. If it doesn't work, FSU's run defense, already just average a year ago, could take a step back rather than forward. 🍢
Three months running. No losses on the open book in 2026 so far.
Adam Mesh has six open options trades on the book right now.
Every one of them is in the green.
Here's his 2026 record as of today:
• SNDA — opened Feb 26. +203. Still open.
• OWL — opened March 5. +735. Still open.
• BB — opened April 21. +474. Still open.
• ASPI — opened April 23. +800. Still open.
• NOK — opened April 30. +480. Still open.
• BULL — opened May 14. +156. Still open.
Total unrealized profit across the book: $2,848 and counting.
That's not a back-tested track record. Those are live open positions, dated and verifiable.
He'll be the first to tell you not every trade wins. He's been doing this for 30 years. He's had plenty of losers. Every trader has.
But the math behind his core strategy is built so the odds lean in his favor before he ever clicks submit.
He just put together a free video that walks through the four strategies behind every name on that list.
You'll see the trade structure. The setups. The exit rules. The reasons most options traders blow up their accounts and how to not be one of them.
Duce Robinson usually gets the nod as FSU's top NFL prospect, but former Dallas Cowboys national scout Drew Fabianich says cornerback Ja'Bril Rawls deserves that distinction.
🔍 The Comparison
Fabianich compared Rawls' tape to Morris Claiborne, the 2011 Jim Thorpe Award winner the Cowboys traded up to draft sixth overall in 2012. He praised Rawls' ball tracking and instincts in both press and zone coverage.
Rawls' main knock is his frame. At 6-foot-1 and 178 pounds, Fabianich doesn't expect him to add much more than seven or eight pounds of mass before the draft.
Why It Matters: Rawls played just seven games last season due to injury, so a fully healthy, high-level season could turn outside praise like this into real draft buzz and give FSU's defense a legitimate difference-maker on the back end. 🍢
Tight end Landen Thomas flashed as a true freshman before an injury-riddled sophomore season buried him on the depth chart. For the first time in his career, he's entering camp fully healthy.
📈 The Track Record
Thomas won FSU's Devaughn Darling Award as a top freshman in 2024 after catching 14 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown, but managed just three catches for 35 yards in an injury-shortened 2025.
Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen said missing camp reps in each of the last two years left real gaps in Thomas' development, something a healthy camp this year should finally fix.
Why It Matters: With East Carolina transfer Desirrio Riles projected as the starter, a healthy, competent Thomas gives FSU real two-tight-end flexibility, something Norvell's offense has leaned on in the past. 🍢
📝 Notebook 📝
FSU women's basketball will play in the 2026 WBCA Showcase at Disney World, facing Purdue on Nov. 19 and UCF on Nov. 21. On the men's side, ESPN named FSU one of 10 teams poised to "make a jump" in 2026-27, and a detailed look at the schedule shows a season-opener against Florida A&M on Nov. 2 and a home matchup with rival Florida on Nov. 10.
FSU hired Matt Walton, the 2025 National Assistant Coach of the Year at Arizona, as associate head coach for both the men's and women's golf programs.
Thanks to Seminole Boosters donor support, the Marching Chiefs will travel to road games at Alabama, Louisville, and Miami this season, among the program's most high-profile road travel in recent years.
Why It Matters: From the hardwood to the golf course to the band, FSU's other programs keep building momentum even as the football program faces its lowest expectations in decades. 🍢
And that's a wrap!
Thanks for reading today's edition, Seminole Nation! Camp is finally underway, and between an eyebrow-raising preseason poll, a packed roundtable, and position battles all over the roster, we've got plenty to track over the next month.
Go Noles,
– The Chief
